The soy traded both sides. There is so much talk, In my opinion guessing on what will transpire. Transpire in the talks with China, transpire with exports. The market on its own is well supplied. As I have said over and over the Chinese have net cancelled 1 mmt of beans in the last week. Their hog prices have plummeted. What is the incentive to buy what they dont need. If they step up purchases perhaps it will be something in short supply for them. Whatever that may be. Im not interested in guessing. I attempt to deal with facts. I see some issues here today in that facts don’t seem to be the pursuit of the marketplace or many writing about it. ( IN MY OPINION) The meal has come under pressure. This is driven by cash markets globally. China, Argentina. Some of this is due to the rate of crush given the extreme margins. Will this continue to decline ? So much depends on the funds. Please be defensive with profits, they vanish quickly given the movement. In my opinion rallies need to be rewarded with cash sales.
The Corn pulled back today. This was due as we have moved higher for a couple weeks now. The market may pull back a bit more and July should present some value at $4.00 . To break more would require a shift. It is my thought that given the global carry, the global demand structure, the corn has more upside potential. I am eager to see where final acreage falls. It appears to me we are shifting to a tighter Corn balance sheet as opposed to Soy.
In the outside markets the dollar is easing a bit and the bonds are rallying. It is my belief given the state of the EU, The global landscape in general, the dollar will continue to move higher over time. In addition in my opinion the highs are in the bond market and rates will climb higher over time. These two markets really have significant long term implications to the producer. Export numbers are sensative to the currency relationships, and certainly the cost of capital is a part of the interest rate equation.
” HAPPINESS LIES IN VIRTUOUS ACTIVITY, AND PERFECT HAPPINESS LIES IN THE BEST ACTIVITY, WHICH IS CONTEMPLATIVE ” ARISTOTLE student of plato ” THE PHILOSOPHER ”