The story remains the same. The meal is leading the soy complex while the large crush pace pressures the bean oil. The oilshare continues to decline at 27.2%. In addition, the meal relative to beans is approaching historic highs. The question is what price either shuts down demand, although not really the issue in my opinion. Or offers other price related solutions. Until meal tops beans we will not break significantly, most likely. It is interesting and perhaps telling that the July Nov spread actually lost today. Next week, next report, supply and demand. It is expected that the carryover will increase. The Chinese are not buying US beans, at present. How many beans are enough? 550-600? A lot of supply. The progress is at pace with the 5 year average for planting. These are all key aspects, but not yet important to the marketplace.
The corn again worked higher. The wheat is the leader in the feedgrains, but corn certainly has its own stories. The weather scenarios globally, and specifically in Brazil, remain dry. This will push the bull narrative. The US is situated to gain exports due to these scenarios. The planting is progressing although behind average. There appears to be no major weather issues domestically. As I have said, let the corn market run its course. Further upside is potential. The corn is gaining on beans and should continue to do so.
The dollar continues to exhibit some strength now above 92. This will be watched closely as a stronger dollar will impact exports.
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