The beans have flat lined a bit here to digest the relationship between the US and China. It is my opinion that the Chinese will give further and a long term deal will be reached. however, to what end. the rhetoric continues to look for every reason except for the obvious for the break. The world is awash in oilseeds. Awash. The chinese situation does not help this fact. In my opinion it is not the key element. In addition the currency valuations only heighten the long term bearish outlook. The SA farmer will most likely plant more beans. Looking at bean acres. It is my belief that the USDA acreage report will show a increase in bean acres. The price of beans 30 days ago was well above $10.00, the cost should dictate some of this. The price relationships are important factors in certain geographic locations. We are due a releif rally at any point. It is my opinion that rallies present hedging opportunities. It is my thought we are on a long term trend change in the soy complex.
The Corn came under considerable pressure again here today. The weather has been beneficial, ratings for corn like the beans are high. Some thoughts to consider in corn however. The global feed grain scenario is friendly. The global stocks are at a 5 year low. exports are moving. This is due to weather issues in key growing areas. The Black Sea. The brazilian crop. All of this bodes well for the US. The domestic prices are now approaching $3.00 when basis is taken into account. In my opinion this is to cheap given the time of year and the above considered thoughts. The corn market has yet to go through a period of stress. If that happens things can change quickly.
” IF YOU TAKE NO RISKS, YOU WILL SUFFER NO DEFEATS. BUT IF YOU TAKE NO RISKS, YOU WIN NO VICTORIES ” RICHARD M. NIXON
BE WELL