The soy was weak, yet again led by the meal market. The weather has been good on the surface with plenty of moisture received through key growing regions of the belt. We now are back at support in the beans at 950. The USDA will release a supply and demand tomorrow, then the acreage at the end of the month. The exports continue to slip. The market is eyeing the summit between Trump and Kim Jung Un. The market has talked of this for some time. It has been my thought beans at $10.00 were overvalued. At today’s price the market may take a wait and see approach. Look at yields, look at South American planting estimates and so on. It remains early but certainly the global soy scenario is ample and growing. The fund position is still net long in both beans and meal. This position now is under water presumably. On a relative basis meal still remains historically high. Lets see what tomorrows numbers show.
The Corn has really fallen given the high ratings and the early weather. A couple things have happened. The corn spreads have widened out. In addition, July corn is at the low levels seen month ago. This in my opinion is premature. There remains a long growing season ahead. In addition, the Brazilian corn will show smaller overall numbers. Another consideration is the ongoing dryness in the black sea. The feedgrain scenario has been friendly globally. All this bodes well for US exports. Exports at present are good. The market needs to bring home a good domestic crop. This severe break seems like a reasonable place for users to extend coverage. Lets see what tomorrows numbers bring.
” IF YOU WOULD BE A REAL SEEKER AFTER TRUTH, IT IS NECESSARY THAT AT LEAST ONCE IN YOUR LIFE YOU DOUBT, AS FAR AS POSSIBLE, ALL THINGS ” RENE’ DESCARTES
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
800-993-5449
jwalsh@walshtrading.com