I must confess I am a bit tired. I am viewing the market much different at present than the conventional pieces I read. My contention is we have plenty of everything. Beans especially. Most of what I read is laying out a bull stance. Which is fine and perhaps will be correct. The meal market has had a story based on the Argentinian crop. We are at high prices. Meal relative to beans is very high, crush margins are historically high, and the oil share has weakened considerably. Looking at years with this size of carry both domestically and globally, I don’t see a year where we have had prices this high. The growth for beans in the next year looks huge. South America combined without a weather issue could grow by 20 million tons of production. My point here is not to wish for a bear market, but to say if you are a producer lock in profit. It doesn’t matter if you do it on the board or in the cash market. Just make sure the profit is there. The 2019 crop above $10.00 presents value in my opinion.
The Corn took a break. Some talk that the Tariff could add corn acres and reduce beans. I don’t see that. Monsanto released some info they see a 6% decline in seed sales for corn. The Corn has an opportunity to dial in some more premium if the acreage remains as expected. Look at my suggestions in beans and pick spots to make sales where you, as a producer, can lock in profit. Next week USDA will be a important number.
Be Well,
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