The soy complex has made gains of late. This strength has been led by the soyoil. The oil share is currently 35.7 % . This area is a target I have spoken of for some time. It arrived. The question now is what next ? It is my thought that the market needs to digest this recent run up. There may well be a small setback. This could be healthy. There is approx a two month window now till signing and purchases from China potentially. This means possibly a small set back, however the market should be supported in the medium term. It is my belief the oilshare should make further gains into the new year. It seems possible that 38-40% is a possible goal. A set back presents a opportunity. Some new year thoughts. The Chinese appetite for beans will be less dramatic than for other commodities in my opinion. The ASF is still a real threat. This will limit growth for meal demand. In addition the availability of other alternative meals is real. Especially from the black sea region. These facts if accurate heighten the oil share theory. In looking out further the new crop nov beans above 970 presents hedging opportunities for next year. Lets not loose sight that the US carry will be approx 675-700 mil bu. Certainly better than thought, but plenty none the less. The global carry at 96 mmt, plenty. Look for long term opportunities to end the year. In addition quantify your risk.
BE WELL