ag thoughts

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The oil share surged a bit today. This for two reasons. The fundamental picture remains friendly veg oils at present (IMO) and the excitement over a China trade deal. After the close it was announced that phase one has been reached in principal. Now the two leaders (respectively) need to sign the document. It seems possible some details will be released before the signing. This could give a short term boost to prices. This could set up opportunities to hedge if the markets rally. The markets after the digestion of the deal will turn focus to the SA weather and planting. Both of which at present are in the normal range. A long season ahead. Looking at corn. At present the US has a window for purchases. In addition due to the weather there will be a amount of corn left in the field till spring. Estimates as high as 1.2 bil bu. This would create a short term tightness until feb march period. Regardless anything over 500 million bu creates a temporary shortage. This could be the catalyst for a bit of a corn rally. As always these are thoughts, quantify your risk. Lets see what the market thinks of the deal


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