John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The soy complex has perhaps put in a short term low. The trade is aware that some production will remain in the fields. In addition the month of Nov did see a healthy export pace. These facts will tighten the domestic balance sheet a bit and could provide some near term support. The next developments to watch will be what Argentina will do with taxes/tarriffs on exports. How will this play out relative to beans and products. The overall acreage will be a key element to watch. In thinking about the macro scenario, There has been a pick up in meat exports to China due to ASF. But more importantly It appears there are major shifts from a economic stand point out of Asia, and especially China. The slowdown that has been witnessed could, in my opinion be a long lasting shift. Thats not to say China will not be a major player. They will, but perhaps the rapid growth that fueled demand increases year after year is gone. That growth was fueled by us as a country. I am not making a case of right or wrong. Only that perhaps the scenarios have changed. It will then be important to consider a different outlook going forward. I have touted oil share for some time. It has slowly gained. the gain has been difficult as always a back and fill trade. It is my belief that oil share will be the leader in the soy complex. This could also be a important shift if true. As always these are offered as thoughts. Quantify your risk. For specific ideas call.


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