COMMENTARY: This is more of a general commentary today regarding the AG markets. The soy today had a reasonable move up. This at present is driven by the global veg oil strength. The July oil share will expire tomorrow at 48-50%. The Aug in my opinion will trade to 50-52%. This is fueled by the tight Canola crop in Canada. The lack of growth thus far in Palm Oil production. In addition, the larger use of Bio in South America, with the Brazilian admixture moving to 12% in Aug. The one piece of the puzzle I continue to monitor is the Parana river. If this shuts down, I have no predictions either way. It is a risky situation that would if a reality could introduce extreme volatility. As always quantify the risk. There exists unprecedented risk in the markets. It is my thought the volatility will be with us for some time. As mentioned yesterday, the old and new crop may very well represent different risk/opportunities in the next few months. The weather focus will again heat up now as corn enters critical pollination in July, and beans are close in late July /Aug. Quantify your risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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