The Soy under pressure today. The meal loosing to oil. There are some important issues to be considered here. The weather is wetter in Argentina through the weekend . The yield decline will cease. can we add bushels to double crop ? Perhaps. The markets will now start to eye the acres. Private analysts are now reporting estimates of 1-2 million more bean acres. this is very significant. Run the numbers. with 550 million in carry at present. Where will we be next year. Much more is the answer. All these beans equate to more meal. It is my belief the beans and meal are starting a move lower. The magnitude will be impacted by how many more bean acres are planted. The nov 18 is still well above $10.00 per bushel. It makes sense to take advantage of this hedging opportunity. Nov 19 was above 10 still today. Tomorrow crush report may offer some opportunities.
The Corn as I have said may have a near term top. The market does hold up very well. It is my belief there are some changes globally that help the corn. The Key to strength in corn will be a slight reduction in the acreage later this month. That is particularly important because it opens the window for less production and a guarantee of a slightly declining carry. A weather problem in the spring or summer would produce the rally to make a bigger year possible.
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Both beans and meal are below the moving averages that I watch. This signifies a opportunity potentially for further weakness. Quantify your risk.
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