Ag Commentary

The USDA report is now behind us. Looking at the numbers.The soy carry went up to 445 million bu. The 20 million addition is due to the export competition. The global carry was raised to 98.32 mln tons. This is a record. This also does not take into consideration a increase in the Brazilian crop. The USDA is as much as 4 million tons under other private estimates. These numbers are bearish. Despite the large demand. The market will turn its focus to the weather next week and see if rain materializes. Without rain we may rally. It is important to view this rally as a hedging opportunity. The reality is it will take a huge issue to change the global balance sheet.