The market started higher today. Then sold off quietly throughout the day. The only question that needs to be answered regarding the soy complex is related to South American weather. A timely rain event in Arg, and Brazil and the crops are off to fantastic starts. A bit of dryness and the drought fantasies will come out. This could fuel a bit more rally. This in my opinion is presenting opportunity. The global carry has grown 22 million tons,in two years and rests at 98 million tons. The oilseed stocks globally are records. I cant say much more. Emotion vs reality. Enjoy the weekend. Perhaps some questions are answered next week.
corn
The corn remains under pressure with option expiration. the availability of South American corn remains high. This coupled with a general oversupply of feedgrains leaves the US corn market under general pressure. To change this, and it is possible will take some shifts in the acreage. The price ratios definitely favor planting beans into the 2018 crop year. There does however remain a large carry which changes the new crop out look in the ratio. The funds are short 200-220 t contracts. Big positions, and to date there is nothing to shake that loose. At some point it appears there is some form of a quantifiable trade that can be place with covered options. EG buy futures and buy puts with a lot of time value. As always quantify the risk
Be Well