Ag Commentary

John WalshGrains

The Usda report today was eagerly awaited. There were a couple of surprises. The govt decided to reassess last years stocks, which was already known. And the Brazilian crop. The domestic and global carryover in beans was reduced. Interesting the rally. Now, looking forward some thoughts to consider. The carryovers while reduced, are still some of the largest registered in the last decade. Domestic, not since 2006 has the domestic carry been this large. globally, one of the largest on record. this seems to be a computer generated rally that may or may not last. Perhaps we should all reconsider what we know of fundamentals and stocks to usage. It does appear the rally today is presenting hedging opportunities that are being taken advantage of. Also please consider new crop prices, next year above 10.00 per bushel seems to be presenting a opportunity.

 

Be Well