The soycomplex today was mostly quiet. There are many currents running here. The central belt remains a bit dry. The Delta is potentially going to be struck with the hurricane effects. This story however may be in the final stages. The reality of the market is that the conditions have held up just fine. It is my contention that the final yield will remain at the recent USDA numbers. This will not be bullish relative to our current price level. The USDA report will be released early next week. Producers and speculators alike can take advantage of this recent appreciation. Lets look at a few key facts as understood by the marketplace. Yet not really being digested in my humble opinion. The global production and carryover have grown substantially. 3 years ago the stocks were approx 60 million tons, now they are 97-98 million. The southern hemisphere crop could put them at or above 100 million. These are huge numbers. the domestic carryover is very ample and without guessing Tuesdays numbers will play a key role in price discovery. These numbers do not equate to a historic price of 10.00 beans.
On a more micro scale. The soymeal market is oversupplied globally. The availability of competitive protein sources, including DDG,s has been negative for meal offtake. This also in my opinion is not reflected in the current price structure above 4300.00 per ton. The bean oil on the other hand has a friendly bent given the current price and the overall tighter world availability. Especially canola which hold a 50-55 per ton premium to the bean oil. These small facts may prove important.
There are various ways to attempt to gain leverage in the market. For a conversation please call 800 993 5449
there is always risk,so quantify it,and understand your tolerance