The response to the usda report (wasde) was a bit lackluster. The numbers do however hold some significant opportunities potentially, in my opinion. The soybeans per the usda estimates for the 17/18 crop year show 88.6 mil acres with a 48 yield. The acres are fine. However the yield may prove to be understated. The range given last years production could potentially increase carryover by 400 million bushels. Given the already more than ample stocks, the market will need to seek a lower level to continue to be competitive from a demand perspective. Demand has been robust and there is no change to that outlook. The south American production continues to show increase as expected. The amount is not as important as the direction.
The details are are as expected. The uptick in exports proposes a lower price to keep US beans moving. Up 125 million bu. The crush is up 25 million bu from april. This is optimistic given the global protein scenario. However depending on the crush margins a bigger crush may prove itself out. The vegoil side may be forced to carry a larger percentage. The funds are short. Given the numbers today a steady decline may be forthcoming. The wildcard is weather. A tough planting road could push us a bit higher which will present a opportunity.
exercise caution
Be Well