The Soy complex is marking time now waiting for the planting intentions. Given the relationship between soy and feed grains the acreage estimate is expected to be much expanded from last year. The bean market remains at historic price levels given the carryover and the global stocks to usage. Look for farmers to reward the market with their planting. In addition the insurance average price is considerably higher than last year. This will also be a factor when pencil is put to paper for potential profitability. There remains opportunity for the speculator and the hedger alike. The fund position is large in both beans and meal. perhaps they want to see a confirmation of a large number? If the market numbers are bearish on the 31st, the funds may look to exit their length. The south american estimates as a whole look to continue to expand. The export arena will have plenty of competition going forward. In addition the weather to finish out the crops looks very good as a whole. The main point today. look to quantify a risk and have a bearish bent to the market.
As mentioned the oil share will be of special importance going forward. bean oil has gained 1-1.5% over the last week. Depending on the outcome of the intention report this section of the soy complex may hold opportunity
Be well