Ag Christmas in February

John WalshGrains

Ok, the meal is rolling, the crush is rolling, Very high levels historically in meal on a relative basis. Oil share has been taking a pounding. This will continue until the Argentinian drought is broken. Beans are getting a ride on meals coat tails. The nov 18 has reached 1020. A price I have been saying presents opportunity. There is much to consider here, but 1020 beans given the historic relationship. This is getting pricy. It does not matter at some point where Arg crop comes in. There are so many beans in the world. The growth over two years has been enormous. This rally only will serve the acreage increase in the coming domestic season. The rally in meal soon will bring competitive oilmeals into the demand equation. My main point of all this is we have gotten a approx. $1.00 rally, please use this rally to start to sell some new crop production. Either on the board or through the elevator. When this turns it will turn fast.

The corn story remain the same. Corn is in a nice position as we are the cheapest in the world for export. The long term potential is for some acreage reductions given the price relationship to beans.  The domestic carry has a chance for further reductions, as well as the global carry. As I have said this is not a run away market. But the dec 2018 does have a shot at 402-406, in my opinion. This area reflects opportunity to make cash sales.