The Soy was trudging along higher today based on weather outlook. The new crop bean, November, have reached my target range 10.10 to 10.20. The latter not reached today. The meal was the early strength of the products. The concern there is with a 52 million mmt crop in Argentina the crush will suffer and the meal exports will suffer. This also has the board crush margins on fire. $1.20 range, significant money. I do not have a crystal ball, but I know 10.00 beans, 3.50 dollar per ton meal, is out of whack. Seriously, given the size of the carry. The funds can push it higher. I say can. However, be prudent and use this rally in beans to at least start a program of cash sales. The concern, the forecast calls for more dry for two weeks. If the forecast is wrong and rains are received. The story is over. There are strategies that can be placed in options that quantify a risk without flat price risk in futures. The Emperors new clothes has never been right. Give call for conversation – 800 993 5449.
The Corn was an unchanged market essentially when the dust settled. The 250 t shorts, coupled with the moving averages turned higher may be enough to spark a further rally. As mentioned yesterday, No Moon shots here, just a rally that may be overdue. And supported by the significant drop in the South American production. In addition, the recent drop in the US dollar. The currencies have a much greater impact than is realized. The movements can create short term opportunities. A word of caution. Rallies above $4.00 basis dec need to be used as a hedge. Not a huge bull, just a bit friendly, and this bear market in corn is ssooo long in the tooth.
Idea. You can buy March at the money puts for cheap. 350 mch puts 1.5 cents, and buy futures, a low risk covered futures position. If we rally 15 cents you will net 13.5 less commissions. Not a homerun, but a profit if correct with managed risk. These are what we are looking for. Call if want to discuss. 800 993 5449 or Email jwalsh@walshtrading.com
Be Well,
John Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
Toll Free: 1 800 993 5449
Fax: 1 312 256 0109
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
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