Tonight’s USDA figures are anticipated to show the nation well behind average with corn, beans, spring wheat, durum and oat plantings while winter wheat conditions are anyone’s guess. Mother Nature appears to be uncooperative this year, so far, and even though farmers welcome rain it doesn’t do any good when the crop is still in the seed bag. Crusty Old Timers have said that we’ve a couple more weeks to just be anxious and not panic about corn planting delays. After May 20 the old adage is that we’ll lose yield potential for any corn planted. Please remember that condition estimates might be more subjective than objective so the figures which will be questioned, regardless! We’re already hearing of alternative crops to get planted if the weather doesn’t change in the next two weeks.
Relationships between grains are getting interesting as oats have become the superstar while Kansas City Wheat the pig. We are approaching levels, pound for pound, where oats are as good as gold while wheat and corn are nearing parity………….Poultry might start making provisions for incorporating wheat into the feed mixture for a couple of cycles and this might be the opportunity for Chicago and Toledo to lose the vomitoxin stocks…..and that’s a two edged sword! A lot depends on a good quality crop in LH May/June/July. There are numerous opportunities for corn/oats/wheat spreads!
First notice day tomorrow and the CME should have the compilation around 8:30 tonight . The next major event is the crop report on May 10 which will give us the first surveyed yield projection on winter wheat. Acreage is down yet the moisture is prevalent in the US. We are starting to hear that continental Europe is getting a little dry but, it’s early in wheat development so moisture needs are small.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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