There are some discrepancies and unusual relations in the wheat market as Chicago remains unnaturally firm compared with Kansas City and Minneapolis. Believe it or not, we’ll be wrapping up this year’s harvest in a few weeks and then we’ll be dealing with seeding a few months from now. New crop Chicago is showing a 27 cents premium in the new crop July 2020 to Kansas City and if the market is efficient we should see a lot more soft red being planted in the eastern sections of the Plains where hard red and hard yellow used to be seeded. Something is awry within the wheat market as protein content used to have a direct correlation with price premium. Quality is still a concern for the 2019 crop but, the market might be more responsive and reward the crazy relations with a lot more soft red and soft white next year!
There’s a supply/demand projection for corn, beans and wheat on Thursday. It’s the USDA and they don’t need no stinkin’ badges but, they have publicly stated that the projections will be based on all the estimates and assumptions issued by July 1 which suggests that the projections for the new crop corn and bean crops might be sketchy because of the unbelievable acreage figures. There are those who sense that an evil genius might be at work and the plausible deniability between departments of the USDA just serves as a cover and/or there are those who just sense that the USDA is inept, sometimes, and just dropped the ball with the prospective acreage fiasco from last Friday. Regardless, we always have and always will preach the Gospel of going into major government reports as even and open minded as possible!
Weather is still a major market mover and we might have that to focus on Sunday night and Monday morning. The USDA crop condition reports issued after the close on Monday are anticipated to show improving crop ratings.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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