Looks like new crop corn in 2019, 2020, and 2021 are in their “happy place” from 410 to 420. There are calculating experts out there presenting 460 as a breakeven price for corn this year given the lower yield expectations. But, we’ve seen in analog years that great yields happen in years after problematic years with too much moisture such as this one. Producers with seed in the ground might be wise selling a percentage of new//new- new//new- new- new at a profit right now! Normal yields make this values mildly profitable. We’ve seen a 15% rally in ten days yet, there’s a lot of growing season left and we may see the market take a “time out” until we start seeing what the weather might be during the scattered pollination starting in early July.
Texas is reported to be 8% harvested on wheat with is the average. Another week of warm and humid could lead to some very mushy junk coming across the scale which will probably find its way into feed channels. Kansas City is not a vomitoxin tolerant contract like Chicago and end users who need quality might stand for delivery even if they get 10.5% protein at a discount. We’re still 6 weeks away from real problems in the heart of soft red production. It’s still green and growing!
Soybeans might remain the last to rally given abundant stocks domestically and in South America and the likelihood that farmers cannot help themselves and will plant something if given a window in the first half of June. Bean spreads could remain soft and sloppy.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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