Wet weather is back in the forecast as the NWS is stating that we’ll get a little wetter than normal in its most recent 6 to 10 day projection……………………………….Producers might take this into consideration and hustle night and day and we may see the USDA place harvest completion over the hump at 55% for corn and beans on the Monday afternoon report……………………………………………Winter wheat seeding is rapidly approaching the date where it doesn’t pay to take a chance as the likelihood of a good stand developing before dormancy and Winter is poor…………………………………..Field reports are still varied as the Eastern half of the Heartland is enjoying excellent to “out of this world” yields while the western half is less enthusiastic…………………We’ll get fresh production figures in November and January but, until that time the basis will tell us how the harvest sizes up……………………
It still feels as though the grain and bean markets are on hold awaiting the end of harvest and seeding………………….End users might be more than willing to take coverage of extended needs sub 360 CZ, 850 SX and 500 WZ and producers are not in any hurry to hedge the harvest near ten year lows and might consider selling some 2019 if we jump to 425 December 2109(CT), $10 New November(SS) and $6.00 WN…………………………………….Corn and bean spreads and basis might remain on the defensive as we are hearing of corn piles already starting in Illinois………………………
Wheat is still a raw nerve and testing the patience and pocketbook of the speculative bull…………………..World stocks/use ratio is still very tight according to USDA projections and the crusty old timers have sometimes stated that wheat takes no prisoners on rallies………………….Producers aren’t excited with hedging new crop production sub $6 WN and they might be forced to let it go sub $% but, a lot of events have to go well to assure seeding, a good stand, no winter kill, good snows, good moisture in March and April and then decent harvest weather next May/June/July………………………Given the tightness suggested by the USDA and disruption in the Southern Hemisphere the next few months, we sense that from this price level that there’s more upside than downside risk………………..
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited
within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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