The National Weather Service in its 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts suggest that the Heartland will be a little drier than normal which is good news for harvest activity to resume and allow producers to catch up after delays caused by rains and snows the past two weeks…………………………………………Trade talk is that the USDA might place corn and bean harvest at 40% complete in tonight’s reports which puts the pace at slightly below the 5 year average………………………………………..Regardless, there’s still a lot of the crop that needs to find a home which might keep pressure on basis levels and spreads…………………………Winter wheat seeding is expected to be near the 5 year average pace!
World weather is also a concern as European wheat areas have been a little too warm and dry…………….Australia and Argentina are starting and rapidly approaching harvest and a little dry weather is always welcome………………………………………..
Crusty old timers always like to keep an eye on oats as there’s an old saying that “as oats go so goeth the grains” and oats are approaching the highs made the last 5 years………….We do not plant many acres of oats in the US anymore and millers and stable owners rely on Canadian, Scandinavian and Polish oats to meet most of their needs today……………………….. Trade pacts and such have consequences and in the next few years we might see a tendency for Canadian oat acres to increase at the expense of corn and soybean acres specifically in Ontario……………………………….Regardless, the recent strength in oats might serve as a warning sign to not get too bearish on corn and wheat right now!
It appears that we are still in an area in corn, beans and wheat where it’s too cheap to sell yet, no urgency to buy! Waiting for the final third of harvest and how the crop gets stored is an event which has to be played out. Patience!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited
within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
sbruce@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.