Forecasters are calling for dry weather through early next week and then a little rain in their 6 to 10 day outlook which should induce producers to throttle up and go after beans and corn in earnest this weekend………………According to the USDA we still have close to 80% of the corn and bean crops to get out of the field and we fear basis levels weakening in many interior locations as it appears that covered space might be getting more scarce………
The USDA will issue its Small Grain Summary and Stock-in-all-Positions reports tomorrow at 11:00 Chicago time……………………………………………………..as always we respect the USDA and stress an attitude of going into major reports as even and open minded as possible…………………………………….I have no expectation of what the Government will offer yet the talk amongst analysts is that winter wheat stocks might suggest that the soft white wheat crop in the PNW might be a little higher than reported in the August Production Report……………………..I have heard no talk about the hard red and soft red figures………………………………………………Corn and bean stocks should match up with the final carryover figures in the USDA Supply/Demand and any deviation might be muted as we are in the midst of harvest………………….in years past this has always been a report where the USDA is rumored and alleged to be able to fudge and adjust for slight miscalculations in previous reports…………It is tough to hit a moving target and very understandable to need to adjust………………………Yet, these adjustments have been large in some instances…………………………Hence, respect the USDA!
A reminder that it is the end of the month and quarter tomorrow!
It’s my opinion that the market will settle in and trade harvest activity until the October 11 crop report as there appears to be a belief that trade agreements might not be reached until after the midterm elections………………Agreements will be a pleasant surprise if they come before early November ……………………………………………………We sense that end users are not in a rush to chase rallies in corn and beans until we are past 80% completion in harvest……………………….
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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