The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
It is a big day for wheat number crunchers next Friday, September 28 as the USDA will release its annual small grains summary as well as the Stocks-in-all-Positions report as of September 1, 2018…………………All grains and oilseeds will be included in the stocks reports and the trade traditionally likes to scour the corn and bean ending stock figures to weigh the accuracy of the USDA projections, in this case 2017/2018 marketing year ………………………Traditionally, the trade shrugs off the corn and bean figures as there are those who sense that the market is more focused on harvest activity of the present crop year…………………………………yet, there have been surprises in this report and as always, I preach the Gospel of going into all government reports of this caliber as even and open minded as possible!!…………………………………………………………………………..It is also the end of the quarter next Friday and there are those who believe that the markets can act more squirrelly than usual on these days……………………Oats, rye and barley are also the focus of the small grains summary…………………..
The USDA typically includes 42 states in its analysis and compilations of wheat production so all of those who care about Rhode Island, Hawaii, Connecticut, Alaska and other New England states need to find another source………………………………….There might be some nuggets buried in the figures next Friday and we will be looking! ………………………………….The wheat market has been concerned with the Russian/Black Sea situation as well as Australia! We haven’t forgotten Argentina as they have been experiencing the best growing conditions on the big three southern hemisphere producers but, things can change quickly and the market has been sensitive to any threats to world production………………….
Corn and beans remain heavily influenced by weather and Washington…………………………Beans are still extremely sensitive to China tariff considerations yet, there might be a growing sentiment that the market will take care of world demand with transfers of US origin to Argentina and/or Brazil………………….not a hard reach and, in my opinion, the tariff talk has had a lessened impact on prices than the media has presented as the trade has been aware of the ability to switch origin………………………..The Weather; I am uncomfortable looking beyond a 3 to 5 day forecast for accuracy…………………………There are calls for a frost in the Heartland next weekend………………………………….Prove it!
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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