One of my favorite films is the 1979 rendition of “The In-Laws” and after the Generalissimo/Senor Pepe scene the Serpentine scene stands out as the most memorable……………………………Trading and hedging grains and oilseeds is relatable as it could be looked at as the Theater of the Absurd……….Senor Pepe………………………….and we are always trying to hit a moving target………………………….Serpentine……………………………………………..I don’t want to infringe on any copyrights and I am just suggesting that you make the effort to find the scenes………………………………
Black Sea export licenses on/Black Sea licenses off……………………………….Chinese tariffs on and more/Chinese tariffs off and/or less……………………………………..It is difficult to forecast what politicians and Mother Nature have in store for us and we have to be ready and willing to adjust our attitudes and actions quickly………………………………………………….Speculators might have the luxury of standing aside and waiting for over reactions yet, hedgers ………………………end users and producers have fewer choices………………………..We are at the lower end of the last decades trading range and in my opinion end users may have a greater willingness to take extended coverage …………………………they might be thinking that they are happy to be buying CZ at $3.50 and might be even happier to buy more at $3.20….and so on…………………Some are anticipating that harvest progress will reveal that we are ahead of the historic average given the maturity of the corn and bean crops and Mother Nature’s cooperation in the Heartland this past week………………………………………The National Weather Service is calling for warmer and wetter in the Heartland in its last 6 to 10 day forecast which might serve as incentive to go full throttle the rest of this week…………………………I believe that with off farm storage space as snug as some are anticipating a race for space will happen this Fall which could intensify the pace of harvest……………………………………
Wheat traders remain concerned over Australian and Argentine production ……………………………………………….Australia has experienced some frost problems over the past week and production declines might make the world stocks/use ratio even tighter which might serve as impetus for a rally if the northern hemisphere seeding which is in full swing the next six weeks does not go well…………………………………………………….
Our next major report is the Stocks-in-all-Positions report set to be released on September 28…………………………..this report is most meaningful to wheat as winter wheat harvest was complete as of September 1 while the bean and corn numbers might be a little less precise as there was some harvest action at the time of the compilation of data………………………………………………….
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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