The soy was higher today. I would like to take a step back and look at the market from a longer term perspective. No specific trade ideas. Just a thought on where we may be going. It is my belief the complex is on a major shift. The last while has been based on crushing for meal demand. Protein. The margins are high due to this fact. It is my belief there are global shifts that will effect this scenario. First, the incentive globally given the currency differences, and numerous other reasons is to plant beans. The production is leading to carry overs not seen before. Yes. Now, the Asian markets are struck with the african flu virus. The markets are doing a good job of not paying attention to this. It is my belief this is a real issue, here to stay. The UN has declared this is a real long term issue that its not if but when causes a serious loss. Prior to this the China hog sector was suffering financial losses due to overproduction. Given the Financial state of China at present I believe the there are many issues to consider and the soy demand will wane. The Hog production in and of itself needed to be culled. I believe due to the african Flu ultimately many animals throughout Asia will be effected. My opinion. If this is true, the protein market is very over valued. It is my contention that the oilshare will gain over the long haul. Perhaps one more dip, and than a forward progression. Lets see how the USDA report plays out on wednesday.
I have little to comment on regarding the corn, I have stated my beliefs for weeks. It is my belif that corn is undervalued based on my perception of the current fundamentals. Wednesday will be a important release.
to discuss this or any other thoughts jwalsh@walshtrading.com 800 993 5449
” I WOULD RATHER LIVE A SHORT LIFE OF GLORY THAN A LONG ONE OF OBSCURITY ” ALEXANDER THE GREAT
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