Last year at this time, we were looking at the end of the El Nino and creation of the next La Nina. Similar to 2012. And here is a list of the La Nina dates. La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1949–51,
[ 1954–56, 1964, 1970–72, 1973–76, 1983–85,
[ 1988–89, 1995–96, 1998–2001, 2007–08, 2010–12, and 2016–17
.. Walsh Trading INC Last year, we were expecting, the next La Nina. The chart patterns on the grains, were very similar to 2010-2012 La Nina. The La Nina did occur, but it occurred, after the growing session. So, it didn’t affect last years crop.. But, as one knows, the La Nina, did have an affect on the weather. Especially in California. La Nina created all the rain, and with that many floods. And this ended a prolonged dry spell . . .This year there are two things that obviously will affect the pricing of the grains.
The first, is the weather. And next is the dollar. How should we hedge this years crop? First, South American crops are proving to be better than anticipated. Both in Brazil, and Argentina. Brazil, is looking to create a record breaking soybean crop. Should be close to 19% higher than last year. Corn and wheat about 5% better. Now, why are beans so much higher than corn and wheat? Last year I was looking for beans to follow corn and wheat lower. It didn’t occur. Could it have been the massive buying of beans by China? China could have problems this year storing more beans! . And with the possibility of a good crop this year in South America, as well as in North America, could slow China’s buying. .So at the moment we have a great hedge program to protect us. Plus March 15 is coming and that will be the beginning of an interesting period. Budget time> .
Dennis Eich
53 W. Jackson
Suite 750
Chicago, IL 60604
Direct:.312-985 -0308
800.587.6275
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as an Independent Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
