The soy continues its decline. There are some things to consider here. My personal long term target for beans is $7.70. We are within 5% of that at present. Close enough for government work as they say. Perhaps we go a bit lower. My point – I think the markets will stabilize in this range and are due some rally. I must say again 580 million bushels domestic carry, 100 million tons global carry. We are breaking because the fundamentals are bearish. That is a reality of this market. Despite record demand we are growing record carry overs. At present, the crush rates are record which is to be expected. The crush margins are a record. Buy as many beans as possible and crush away. Printing money. In my opinion, this is running its course. The meal at present is the most overpriced thing on the board. There is no protein shortage. There is a fine supply of ddg at a much reduced rate to soy meal. I believe over time meal can trade sub $300 per ton.
The Corn in my opinion should put a low in. The numbers as I have said do not equate to the current price. The weather has been good. However, there are some pockets of dryness. This may become of some concern. The market will start to focus on the weather for the remainder of the summer. There appears to be a segment that believes the weather has added yield. This could be the case but there is still a lot of growing days to get through. It is my belief corn will have a rally. With any weather issues it could be a nice move. That is an IF. The global numbers are friendly.
” HE WHO THINKS GREAT THOUGHTS, OFTEN MAKES GREAT ERRORS ” MARTIN HEIDEGGER
BE WELL