The beans came under pressure today. The realization that the Chinese delegation has nothing finalized is not a bullish input. The US sales to China are dismal at best. This is typically the time of year that SA dominates. The Brazilian is exporting alot. The meal has been under pressure. the last two sessions. This needs to be watched closely. I am not sure the highs are in. However, The argentinian concerns may not be the largest market moving factor. To note the Chinese hog prices are less than half of what they were four years ago. This is why we are seeing a stagnation at best. My concern is that this is a serious trend change. It is my opinion we are potentially on a series of trend shifts that will be financially impacting. The one currently underway is corn, and feed grains in general vs beans. Will this continue to work ? remains to be seen however the present fundamentals lean this way. Next week will will receive a USDA report. This report should add to the bean carry. The next question is related to acreage. If there are acres added, with a trend yield, beans will struggle.
The Corn slightly lower as feed grains were under pressure, and beans as well. The corn story remains intact. The global scenario is friendly. A few showers may be forthcoming this weekend in key global areas. However dryness overall has persisted. Breaks are opportunities. This market is presenting profitable hedging opportunities. A rally to 430-440 presents another one. The USDA will present reports this month that may aide the friendly scenario. we are now looking at 1.5 mil bu carry without and weather distractions.
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” YOU WILL NEVER FIND PEARLS ON THE SEASHORE. IF YOU WANT THEM, YOU MUST DIVE FOR THEM. ” CHINESE PROVERB
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