The Meal and Beans up yet again. At present the Brazilian is Cheaper for export meal and beans. The price difference between beans has narrowed to the point that Brazil will gain market share. This will not bode well for US exports. safras today estimated the Brazilian bean crop at 119.2 mmt This is 4 mmt larger than the USDA report. The significance of this is not the sheer size of the crop only, but the availability of meal that will be created. This eases the needs from Argentinian reductions. As I have commented the US crush continues at a record pace. This to will produce a h3ealthy supply of meal as well as oil. I think the meal should struggle from these levels. The reality here is that the funds are driving this market, not the fundamentals. The bean supply at present is more than ample. The weather in the delta, the dakotas needs to be monitored. the end of month will fast approach, a continuation of wet will push the market to more bean acres. Producers use the strength to lock in hedges.
The Corn continues to exibit moderate weakness. The market is cooling in the export arena in the near term. the market may slip a bit more. The next potential rally will be fueled by any loss of corn acres with a shift to beans. The weather will be key here. There remains a ample supply of corn looking forward. Important to take note however that global stocks have drawn down 33 mmt . The US now will watch seedings closely. The carry could dip into the solidly friendly range if weather issues persist.
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