The Soy complex struggled today, led by beans and meal. The USDA report surprised with acreage. A question. Historically high carry , with historically high prices relative to stocks, and we will plant less. OK, Looking forward. The Bean Carry with a trend yield and a decent growing season will still net a 500 carry. the Next SA crop will be much larger. This does not equate to higher prices without a weather problem. The Wet delta weather may prove problamatic for corn. More Bean Acres ? The Chinese are threatening with a show of face 3 billion. However this will affect pork and that could be a minor issue for meal demand. We currently are awash in pork production. The mainstay here for my thought is the Corn VS bean spread. This has potential.
The Corn now needs to be watched , At present a 1.6- 1.7 billion carry has room for a problem. A reduction of acres due to any weather issues will put a bid under corn, push the price to a higher level. This could get very interesting. The Corn Bean ratio could have a interesting year. It remains my contention to reward the market with rallies and take advantage of higher 2028, and 2019 prices.
For any thoughts or insights call 800 993 5449, jwalsh@walshtrading.com Be Well