SUMMARY:
Argentina continues to have problems with moisture, all Brazil continues to have no problems and if anything too much. While there is no sign of the extreme heat coming back that I can see on the weather models for the next 7 to 10 days… there is no sign of the big rain showing up for Argentina all the next two weeks. Over the last few runs the GFS models consistently shows big rains developing for much of Argentina and it does so again early on Tuesday morning. However the GFS ensemble is much closer to the European and the European ensemble is given to seasonal trend and other factors… But I remain skeptical about the idea of a big rain showing up for any portion of central … eastern … or south central Argentina anytime over the next two weeks. There are some changes developing with the current MJO which might be more favorable for Argentina as we move into March. But by that time the lack of rain for Argentina may have already done its damage.