US HRWW Grain Weather Issues from WxRisk.com

SUMMARY:

1. LA NINA still kicking … Bias towards BELOW NORMAL (BN) Rains Plains/ WCB
2. Jet stream pattern of shallow trough over North Rockies/Upper Plains/Great Lakes favor BN temps there / some
3. BUT also favors Wet pattern for Delta, Deep South and lower WCB
4. NO threat of any Arctic Air mass outbreaks into HRWW areas for next 2 weeks maybe into 1st week of March
5. EXPECT major increases in drought conditions and expansion of D2 D3 and D4 thru FEB 28
6. Strong Hint of western US or sw US trough developing end of FEB / March that COULD set up wet pattern for
   HRWW. — Question if this happens will it be
   • Wetter than it has been
   • Wetter than Normal?
7. SOME climate models that came out yesterday -the NMME – now showing hot very dry over much of the Conus. Problem is that NMME past 2 months is useful and strong warm bias.
8. Threat of hot dry summer 2018 is growing BUT not yet a 50-50 %. Many, many cases of dry winter followed by WET Spring… Come APRIL 30 and it is still this dry… THEN its time to freak out.