Thursday AM US Grain Weather Report

THURSDAY AM RADAR — FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
Moderate rain showers over northeast MN into Lake Superior… scattered storms over eastern TN into eastern KY… and over northern LA, central MO… and over 30% of TX Panhandle into far eastern COL into southwest NEB.

RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ending 0700 cdt 10 AUGUST

Good size area of Moderate rain fell over eastern third of ND, 80% of MN and northwest WI with amounts of 0.25-2.0″/6-50mm… and over central OK into south central KS with 50% coverage. Over far northeast NM into western TX Panhandle there was a narrow band of 1-3″/ 25-75mm. Over the Deep South there was moderate rains of 0.25-1.50″/6-38mm with 70% coverage over AL, 50% coverage over MS, AL, GA. Finally there was light rain of 0.10-0.50″/2-12mm over north central KS into eastern NEB.

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MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY

70s eastern MT/WY, ND, MN, WI… 80s over eastern COL, SD, NEB, KS, OK, TX Panhandle, LA, ARK, MO, IA, ILL, IND, OH, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA… 90s over the rest of TX.

MODELS STILL SHOW “DECENT” RAINS 6-10 DAY CENTRAL PLAINS & WCB

The model data continues to support areas of moderate rain in the 6-10DAY over a good portion of the central plains and the WCB but these are rather ordinary rain events NOT a widespread heavy rain event for the WCB. So one could say that the rains in the 6 to 10 day may end up being the best rains over the WCB in the past three weeks …given how dry the area has been that’s not saying very much.

1-5 D = No changes… Midwest DRY or mostly DRY from eastern NEB to ILL to western PA and as far south as southern MO and TN. EURO model has LIGHT rains 0.25-1.0″/6-25mm over 50% of central ILL/ IND/ north OH on 8/14. All Models DO agree on significant to heavy rains from NC /SC, GA, AL, MS, AL, ARK of 1-3″/ 25-75mm 70% coverage… and over 50% of western NEB & 75% of KS. The Operational GFS has 2-9/50-225mm over 80% of OK while euro has 2-5″/ 50-125mm.

6-10 DAY = all models move rain from ARK, OK, KS & western NEB into eastern NEB, MO into some portion of IA & western ILL… ISSUE is how much… 6z GFS has 0.50-2.5″/ 12-65mm over 60-70% of MO, ILL, IA into southern MN while Euro has only 1-2″/ 25-50mm over eastern NEB… sw IA… most of MO. To the south ALL of the regular models show 1-4″/25-100mm continue over eastern KS, central and eastern OK, ARK, MS, AL, GA but the ensembles show those rains to be more in the 1-2″/ 25-50mm range.

11-15 DAY = no changes. Light to moderate rain over the WCB shows up on all the models — something like 0.50-1.5″/ 12-38mm and 60% coverage. Not a great rain but not dry either.

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