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FRIDAY AM RADAR – FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
The radar is pretty quiet this morning. There are minor scattered showers and storms over central Tennessee… eastern Kentucky and central Ohio. And some additional showers and storms over Wisconsin …Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. All this activity features coverage of 40% or less.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ending 0700 cdt 4 AUGUST
There was moderate rain over eastern portions of Iowa… eastern Minnesota with 60% coverage and nearly all of Wisconsin with 80% coverage of 0.25-1.0″/6-25mm — and somewhat heavier rains of 0.50-2.0″/12-50mm over northeast 25% of ILL and northern third of IND. Similar rains can be found over the western half of the Texas panhandle between Amarillo and Lubbock. Finally there was some widely scattered showers and weak storms over 30% of southern Missouri …the northern third of Arkansas …central and northeastern Kansas …with rainfall amounts here from 0.25 -1.0″/6-25mm.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
60s over MN …70s over eastern MT, ND, SD, NEB, eastern WY, eastern COL, western KS, IA, WI… 80s over OH, MI, IND, ILL, MO, KY, TN, ARK, LA, ND, eastern KS… low 90s MS, AL, TX, OK.
1-5 DAY = Over the next 5 days there continue to be some model differences as to which areas of the Plains and Midwest are going to see the good rains. BUT if we look at the GFS and the European ensemble mean … we see that they are in fact in excellent agreement. For this reason I am presenting both of these images for your consideration. Normally I do not present the ensemble for the first 5 days of the forecast period. But in this case I think it’s worth doing so. What is striking here is that both models show the same north edge of the rain reaching the Missouri/ Iowa State line and falling over much of eastern and central portions of Kansas …Oklahoma …and northeastern Texas. The GFS model has a little less rain over eastern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio …all the European has more rain further to the north and close to Interstate 80.
Both models agree that most of Iowa will not see significant rain all the next 5 days and that is also the case for the northern half of Nebraska and much of South Dakota …Minnesota …Wisconsin … also dry but they have seen significant rains over the past few days.
Also notice that all the next 5 days the models are in excellent agreement and that the heaviest rains will fall over much of Missouri …Arkansas … eastern Oklahoma into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. Rainfall amounts in this area could be as much as 2-4″/50-100mm with locally higher amounts.
6-10 DAY = The model agreement here remains quite strong. Both models show a general 1-3″/ 25-75mm rain over the entire Deep South reaching as far north as the Ohio River. The GFS has the northern extent reaching I- 70 but no further. Both models show the significant rains over the Texas Panhandle and 75%+ of Oklahoma and Kansas into southern Nebraska. The dry areas of the WCB see some rain but NOT significant rain.
The 6 -10 Day model ensemble
11-15 DAY = 11 to 15 day shows significant rains continuing over most of the Deep South …the Delta and up the East Coast but there is some raging over large portions of the Midwest. It’s just not the ideal or much desired significant widespread rain that the WCB needs. I do have to say that I believe the 11 to 15 day here is underdone …that we are going to see a pattern shift in the middle of August which will allow for a significantly wetter pattern to develop over the Midwest and the rains over the Deep South may shift north somewhat.