A bounce today in the markets after yesterdays weakness. The market will mark time to see the USDA numbers on the 10th. The yield is still up in the air for beans as the central and eastern belt are receiving adequate rains while the west is still in question. The next 3 weeks will be key to production. If the rains are received in the west it is not unrealistic to add bushels to the overall production. This would put the markets into a more bearish mode. Given the global supply it may be hard to shake the overall volume of supply. The US is and remains in a decent position at present as far as exports are concerned. This may be the one shining light in the long run. There are many moving parts. the risk has gone up please be cautious and quantify the risk.
The estimates for the usda are all over the place, The general feeling is the exports may be higher than the usda has plugged in which could reduce the projected carryover by 15-20 million bushels. This will not be important IF timely rains are received
Be Well