10/15/26
The Grains were all lower today, with several contracts making new 1-month lows. the November Soybean made a new 1-month low today at 1262 ¼ and settled just above it at 1263. The 1-month low in December Corn is 470 ¼ and today it settled 7 ¾ cents above that level and ½ a cent above the low of the day at 478. The December Wheat 1-month low is 661 ½ and today it settled 8 ½ cents above that level and 2 ¾ cents above the low of the day at 670. The December Meal 1-month low is 344.2, and today it settled 15.6 above that level and 2.8 above the low of the day at 359.8. The December Soybean Oil made a new 1-month low today at 66.30, and today it settled 0.85 above that level at 67.15, and that is a gain of 0.09 on the day. I think the lows are in for the Soybean Oil now, and a sustained rally could now occur. Today could be the perfect time to get long or add to your long position in the Soybean Oil. The NOPA Monthly Crush Report was released today, and it showed the lowest Soybean Oil Stocks at the end of September, since November of 2014, and more than 7% below the month before, at just over 1 billion pounds, or about a 15-Day supply. This is extremely Bullish and I believe we can see it trade much higher from here very soon. I still like it trading in the 80’s. Exports of Malaysian Palm Oil increased about 35% in the first 10 days of October, as India started buying again. There is already a concern with the Palm Oil production this year with the strongest El Nino in 75 years here now, changing the weather worldwide, and this could increase the demand for Soybean Oil. This El Nino is real and according to Japan’s Meteorological Agency the surface temps in the Tropical Pacific Ocean were 4 degrees Celsius higher than normal, or more than 39 degrees warmer on the Fahrenheit scale. The monsoon rains in India were down about 12% from the average rainfall, the least amount of rain in 11 years, the whole region has experienced a lack of rain and that is expected to cut production of Palm Oil through the whole region affecting not only Palm Oil, but Oilseed and Sugar crops as well in India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. The El Nino could cut production of Sugar in Thailand, the world’s second biggest Sugar exporter, Sugar production could drop 17%, and in India, the world’s second biggest Sugar producer, they are allowing up to 1MMT of Sugar imports, INTO THE COUNTRY, tax free until the end of the month. The El Nino has also caused problems for Brazils Sugar crops, bringing too much rain. Brazil is the worlds biggest Sugar producer, and it was reported that Brazils June Sugar production dropped more than 26%. There is now an expectation of a global Sugar deficit of 300,000MT in 2026-2027. The Funds keep buying Sugar #11 as well, and just increased their long position by 28%, and are now long over 212,000 contracts, that is the biggest long position in more than 3-years. Yesterday, March’27 Sugar #11 set a new contract high at 21.29, and today it settled just 16 cents below that level at 21.13. There is still great opportunity in the Sugar #11 using the Option Market. Give me a call and I will tell you how to put on the right position, to capitalize on any move higher in the Sugar #11 market, and I feel it could trade 30.00 or more. The Cattle Markets closed in the green for the first time this week with the December’26 Live Cattle up 2.12 ½ closing at 227.25, and the January’27 Feeder Cattle gaining 4.30 and settling at 337.90. The March’27 Feeder Cattle Trades I sent out on Tuesday 10/13 are shown below. Please give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night.
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YESTERDAY’S SOYBEAN OIL TRADE BELOW
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TUESDAY’S FEEDER CATTLE TRADES BELOW
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10/13/26
The Sugar #11 Market is still moving higher, and today the March’27 contract traded up to 21.18, just six cents from the contract high at 21.24. I continued to buy more calls in the Option Market today and still feel the Sugar #11 could trade 30.00 or higher. The Grains all settled lower today, after the Soybean Oil took another dive. I am sticking with it and bought more Calls today. It was just a few ticks away from a level I like, and thought it was about to explode higher, and then the EPA had a press conference about the biofuel mandates, and the lack of a real answer panicked the market and it sank. December’26 Soybean Oil traded as high as 70.08 today, up 1.45 on the day, and then broke 2.34 down to 67.74. The December’26 contract settled today 0.28 above the low at 68.02. I still believe this market will rally again, and the payoff will be worth the pain, but we will have to wait until December 4th for clarity on the biofuel mandate. (There is a copied explanation below). The global El Nino is enough to send the Soybean Oil higher on its own, and it could get more help from the Crude Oil again. I expect the Crude Oil to continue to trade higher as well. The midterm elections are Tuesday November 3rd, and there is a very good chance all hell is going to break loose in the Middle East, that night or the day after, sending the Crude much higher then, and leading up to it. This would also be bullish for the Sugar #11 contract. The Cattle Markets could not pick a direction today and settled near unchanged. I don’t expect much to happen until a cash trade has been established this week. I did send out a few Bullish Feeder Trades today, let me know if you would like to see them. If you have any questions, please give me a call. Have a great night.
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Here is a copied explanation about the biofuel mandates below:
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I bought more Soybean Oil all the way down and am staying long.
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BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK – PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.
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GOD BLESS AMERICA
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
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