9/22/26
I am still Bullish the Soybean Oil, Sugar #11, and now the Natural Gas Contracts. I am Bearish the Soybeans, and the Cattle Markets, but only for a limited time in the Cattle Markets. There are a few new Trades below, including two new Bullish March’27 Feeder Cattle. I still think the October’26 Feeders can break 20-dollars from here, but the downside in the March’27 is limited, as March’27 Contract is 17.60 below the October’26 Contract month. Give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night.
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9/17/26
The last strong El Nino weather pattern was in 2015-2016, and this year’s El Nino is being called a “Super El Nino”, felt globally, with record breaking water temperatures. I asked AI what it thought about the Sugar #11 market and how the current El Nino weather pattern could affect sugar production worldwide, compared to the last strong El Nino, and this is what it had to say. The most consequential recent example was in 2015-2016. Drought associated with El Nino damaged or threatened cane production in parts of Asia, particularly Thailand and India, while abnormal rainfall affected harvesting and logistics in some other producing regions. This contributed to tighter world sugar supplies and higher prices. As of September 17, 2026, nearby sugar was around 17.5-18 cents per pound, after rising roughly 30% from earlier 2026 lows. The bullish case is supported by expectations that the global market may shift from a surplus in 2025/26 to a deficit of roughly 200,000-260,000 metric tons in 2026/27. Lower production forecasts for India and Thailand, possible El Nino-related crop damage, heavy Brazilian rains, and stronger oil prices encouraging Brazilian mills to produce ethanol instead of sugar are all supportive. The feedback from the conversation with AI also produced a region-by-region forecast or result for the Sugar crops. India – Often below-normal monsoon rainfall, causing drought stress and lower sugarcane yields. Thailand – Frequently drier conditions, reduced cane growth, and lower crushing volumes. Australia – Often hotter and drier conditions in important cane-growing areas, reducing yields where irrigation is limited. Indonesia and the Philippines – Drought can reduce sugarcane growth, especially during strong El Nino events. Brazil – The outcome varies by region. Excess rain can delay harvesting and lower cane quality, while drought can reduce cane growth and sucrose content. Central and Western Pacific Islands – Drought and heat can damage cane crops and reduce water availability. United States and parts of Europe – Effects are mixed and generally less directly linked to global sugar shortages, sugar beets results depend on local rainfall and temperature. The AI has described extatically what is happing right now. The rainfall in India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia is very light, affecting Oilseed, Palm Oil and Sugar Crops. There is a good chance we can see record breaking prices in each of these commodities. Don’t forget, this El Nino is being called a Super El Nino, and is predicted to be the strongest on record, since records were kept starting in 1950. All of these crops are used in biofuels worldwide as well. I recommend taking advantage of any and all pullbacks in these markets. Read what I wrote on Tuesday the 15th, it is shown just below. I am still Bearish the Cattle Markets and today’s price action helped. I feel we can see it continue to break. My levels have not changed, but there are a couple more after the recent rally. If the October’26 Feeder Cattle continue lower from here, then I think there could be pauses around the 321.00, and 315.00 levels with my target level waiting at 306.00. It could trade 20-dollars lower than 306.00, but that is where I still plan to start buying it. Today’s Feeder Cattle Trades and a Soybean Meal Trade are shown below. I am still Bearish the Fats and Feeders, and Bullish the Soybean Oil and Sugar #11 Markets. Give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night.
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9/15/26
It is starting to look like the world could have a Sugar situation on its hands for the next 6-12 months and beyond. France could have its smallest Corn and Sugar Beet harvest in more than 50-years due to the drought and heat being produced from the El Nino weather pattern that has developed. This year’s Corn crop in France is expected to be more than 40% lower than last year’s crop. The French Sugar Beet crop is estimated to be almost 30% smaller compared to last year. The El Nino weather pattern is causing major problems worldwide, with problems in both Asia and South America. The crops currently affected the most by this El Nino range from Oilseed crops, Palm Oil crops, and Sugar crops mostly throughout the India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia region, but also in Brazil. Some think that the El Nino weather pattern along with falling Sugar stocks in India could trigger a very Bullish market situation. The former head of Sugar production operations at Wilmer International has stated that “It could really be the super-hot commodity of 2027, as what is currently happening affecting Sugar could trigger one of the most Bullish markets seen for the past 20 years”. India is the world’s second largest Sugar producer, and I have said earlier this year that they could put export controls on Sugar, but now, it sounds like we are way past that, and India might have to import large quantities of Sugar. In Brazil, the world’s largest producer of Sugar the El Nino weather pattern is delivering too much rain and could affect more than 30% of their Sugar production. These commodities are all used for biofuel as well, and world demand for biofuels is through the roof. The next 6-12 months could see record breaking prices for Sugar, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and all vegetable Oils. Here is another example that will affect the same markets. Palm Oil Plants in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are deteriorating due to very dry conditions over the last two-months. It has been reported that August was unusually dry in the whole region and has continued to be dry into September. The rainfall totals in Palm growing areas in Malaysia alone is down more than 30%. This is all tied together, and the El Nino weather pattern has caused the monsoon rains to be very light. Then there is the Crude Oil Market, and it continues to climb, with the October’26 contract month up another $4.44 today, settling at 105.83, with no end in sight, and this should only increase the demand for biofuels, further pressuring the supply of Sugar, Palm Oil, and Soybean Oil, as demand increases… Like I said, it is all tied together. This could be what you have been waiting for. Take advantage of this opportunity and call me now. Have a great night.
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THIS MORNING’S FEEDER CATTLE TRADES WERE SENT OUT BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY 9/17/26
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THE SOYBEAN MEAL TRADE BELOW WAS SENT OUT TODAY 9/17/26 AT 12:45PM
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PLEASE GIVE ME A CALL IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS
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9/15/26
It is starting to look like the world could have a Sugar situation on its hands for the next 6-12 months and beyond. France could have its smallest Corn and Sugar Beet harvest in more than 50-years due to the drought and heat being produced from the El Nino weather pattern that has developed. This year’s Corn crop in France is expected to be more than 40% lower than last year’s crop. The French Sugar Beet crop is estimated to be almost 30% smaller compared to last year. The El Nino weather pattern is causing major problems worldwide, with problems in both Asia and South America. The crops currently affected the most by this El Nino range from Oilseed crops, Palm Oil crops, and Sugar crops mostly throughout the India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia region, but also in Brazil. Some think that the El Nino weather pattern along with falling Sugar stocks in India could trigger a very Bullish market situation. The former head of Sugar production operations at Wilmer International has stated that “It could really be the super-hot commodity of 2027, as what is currently happening affecting Sugar could trigger one of the most Bullish markets seen for the past 20 years”. India is the world’s second largest Sugar producer, and I have said earlier this year that they could put export controls on Sugar, but now, it sounds like we are way past that, and India might have to import large quantities of Sugar. In Brazil, the world’s largest producer of Sugar the El Nino weather pattern is delivering too much rain and could affect more than 30% of their Sugar production. These commodities are all used for biofuel as well, and world demand for biofuels is through the roof. The next 6-12 months could see record breaking prices for Sugar, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and all vegetable Oils. Here is another example that will affect the same markets. Palm Oil Plants in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are deteriorating due to very dry conditions over the last two-months. It has been reported that August was unusually dry in the whole region and has continued to be dry into September. The rainfall totals in Palm growing areas in Malaysia alone is down more than 30%. This is all tied together, and the El Nino weather pattern has caused the monsoon rains to be very light. Then there is the Crude Oil Market, and it continues to climb, with the October’26 contract month up another $4.44 today, settling at 105.83, with no end in sight, and this should only increase the demand for biofuels, further pressuring the supply of Sugar, Palm Oil, and Soybean Oil, as demand increases… Like I said, it is all tied together. This could be what you have been waiting for. Take advantage of this opportunity and call me now. Have a great night.
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BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK – PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.
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GOD BLESS AMERICA
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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