For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
October Lean Hogs is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the August contract. October Hogs rallied to a new high for its up move on its chart, punching through the 100-DMA now at 88.275 and reaching its high at 88.70 but it was unable to sustain the rally. It turned lower and broke down the rest of the session to the low at 87.625. It settled near the low at 87.725. The price action formed a Shooting Star candlestick which after a strong rally which includes a bullish Candle on Friday could lead to an Evening Star Candlestick formation if Hogs turn lower on Tuesday. This is a bearish formation, in my opinion and could lead to lower prices going forward. The cash market has been strong, with the cutout reaching its highest levels in months. Monday, however, saw the one-day cutout pause and turn lower. This was likely the reason for the turn-about in the futures markets. If the cutout fails to bounce on Tuesday, we could see more downside in futures. The cash market needs to maintain strength or we could see futures prices fall back. It has been the recent strength in the cash market that has pushed futures higher, in my opinion. If cash can’t maintain its strength, it could lead to a strong pullback in futures. Pork demand has improved and Mexico has relented and lifted its restrictions on pork offal products due to the pseudorabies virus. This could lead to a surge in exports to our most important customer. This could keep the cutout strong and keep a bullish sentiment in the market. The restrictions have lowered our exports and caused a reduction of $6 to $7 million in exports to Mexico. The positive news could lead to stronger exports and a cleaning up of built up supply the wasn’t moved. We’ll see!… On the continuous chart the rally tested resistance at 88.325. With the October chart resistance at the 100-DMA this is a strong area of resistance. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 87.10. Support then comes in at 55.325. If price can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 88.325 and the 100-DMA on the October chart. Resistance then comes in at 90.40.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 102.19 as of 07/17/2026.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 95.65 as of 07/16/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 440,000, which is below last week’s 443,000 and below last year’s 447,359.
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