6/9/26
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The Cattle Markets were higher today, while the Hogs made another new low. August’26 Live Cattle were 2.97 ½ higher today and settled at 239.70. Today’s high was 240.00 and the 1-month high is 249.97 ½. Today’s low was 235.15 and the 1-month low is 233.97 ½. Since 5/8 August’26 Live Cattle are 4.35 lower or almost 2%. The August’26 Feeders looked good today. The August’26 Feeder Cattle were 3.45 higher today and settled at 354.15. Today’s high was 355.07 ½ and the 1-month high is 367.50. Today’s low was 349.05 and the 1-month low is 335.95. Since 5/8 August’26 Feeder Cattle are 10.12 ½ lower or almost 3%. The Hogs traded lower for the fourth day in a row today. July’26 Lean Hogs were 1.45 lower today and settled at 94.700. Today’s high was 96.55 and the 1-month high is 106.97 ½. Today’s low was 94.30 and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 5/8 July’26 Lean Hogs are 9.75 lower or more than 9%. The screwworm has arrived in the US and since it was confirmed, the August’26 Feeders have gained 11.52 ½ over the last four trading days, and I feel we can continue to see it trade higher. I feel we can see the August’26 Feeder trade back toward the 1-month high at 367.50. The Hogs continue to get crushed, and my target level in the August’26 Hogs is approaching quickly, and over the last four trading days, August’26 Hogs are down 4.87 ½. Today the August’26 Hogs set a new 1-month low at 94.30, and it looks like a new contract low is in the cards. Currently, the contract low in August’26 Hogs is 93.65, and I will get out of my shorts in the Market if a new contract low is made. It could trade much lower and I don’t recommend buying it. There is a Feeder Cattle Trade below that I put on yesterday morning, and that should show you where I think the market could trade. Give me a call if you have any questions. It’s time to get your account open as well.
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Comments from last Thursday:
It’s a great day to be alive! All the markets were crazy today. The Feeder Market, thankfully, did exactly what I thought it would do today, and closed even stronger than I anticipated. The screwworm scare sent the Feeders almost 6-dollars lower on the open this morning, but after the algo’s were done, the market shot straight up as expected. The August’26 Feeders made a new 1-month low this morning at 335.95 and then shot $17.42 ½ higher to settle limit up, on newly expanded daily limits that began on June 1st. The new daily limit for the Feeders is obviously 10.75 and, in the Fats, the new daily limit is 8.50. Tomorrow, the Feeders will have an expanded limit of 16-dollars, and the Fats will have an extended limit of 12.75. I was able to put on more Bullish Option Trades this morning right on the open in the September’26 Feeders, and that worked out just fine. It is the same September’26 Feeder Trade I sent to you yesterday, if you receive my emails. The “fear” of the Screwworm keeping the Cattle Markets lower was ridiculous, as infected Cattle, along with all the other Cattle with it will be locked down, and not just in one feedyard or pasture, it locks down ALL Cattle in a 12-Mile radius, and I heard it could last for a while, and a larger outbreak could require the use of drugs through the US Food and Drug Administration. Cattle numbers are already tight as everyone knows, and if this thing spreads, then based on current regulations, (and things always change) more Cattle could be locked down as well. If the Screwworm does spread and causes problems moving Cattle, or finding available Cattle, then prices can trade much higher, however, if prices spike, then I would anticipate the Southern Border reopening quickly. No point keeping it closed if the screwworm spreads everywhere here, and that is what the government could do if prices climb, along with changing the rules. So, I recommend staying nimble in the Option Markets moving forward, and or using a sliding stop to protect the downside in the Futures. I am still Bullish the Cattle Markets. I would like to speak with you, and when you have time, give me a call.
Comments from Tuesday:
The Cattle Markets traded lower today, with worries of the screwworm approaching the US border. The closest report of a screwworm I have heard or seen is 31 miles South of the US Border. I still feel the Cattle Markets are a buy, and I bought some futures today in the Feeders. The Stock Markets are at record highs, and the Crude Oil could be breaking shortly. If or when a screwworm is found in the US, I would expect the market to break initially on unnecessary “fear” but then rally back. If Cattle in the US are found to have the screwworm, then all Cattle in that area will be “locked down” and unable to move. It is not clear how big of an area would be locked down, the duration, or what would be needed to lift the lock down. If the area is substantial, then that could cause more strain on a Cattle Market that already has very tight numbers. I am still Bullish the Fats and Feeders and feel we can see higher prices the rest of this week and beyond. The July’26 Hogs rallied 3.35 after setting a new 1-month low today at 98.30. I doubt that the new 1-month low will hold there for very long. I would like to work with you, give me a call.
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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.
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The Grain Markets were mixed today, with the Soybeans making a new 1-month low. July’26 Soybeans were 2 cents lower today and settled at 1113 ¾. Today’s high was 1118 ½ and the 1-month high is 1235. Today’s low was 1110 ¼ and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 5/8 July’26 Soybeans are 94 ¼ cents lower or more than 7 ½%. July’26 Corn stayed positive today, but not by much. July’26 Corn was ¾ of a cent higher today and settled at 419 ½. Today’s high was 425 ½ and the 1-month high 484 ½. Today’s low was 417 ½ and the 1-month and contract low are 412 ½. Since 5/8 July’26 Corn is 51 ¼ cents lower or almost 11%. The Wheat Market also had a small gain today. July’26 Wheat was 2 cents higher today and settled at 585 ¼. Today’s high was 595 and the 1-month and contract high are 688 ¼. Today’s low was 581 ¾ and the 1-month low is 574 ¾. Since 5/8 July’26 Wheat is 33 ½ cents lower or more than 5%. There is a WASDE Report on Thursday, and I expect the Grains to grind lower until the report is released. There could be a surprise in the Report, if many acres were switched from Corn to Soybeans, and we will see soon enough. I still like the Beans to head lower from here, and I like selling the July’26 Soybeans and buying the November’26 Soybeans. We could see strength in the Corn at some point, and I like buying the September’26 Corn and selling the December’26 Corn. I am waiting for the Wheat to break more before doing anything. The Soybean Meal has been breaking nicely, and yesterday I put on an Option trade in the August’26 contract month, and that Trade is shown below. The August’26 Soybean Meal traded lower for the eighth day in a row today, dropping 26.10 over those eight trading days. I have trades ready to go in all of the Livestock and Grain Markets. Give me a call if you are interested in seeing any of them, or if you are ready to finally open an account. I would like to work with you, and the second half of this year could be unbelievable, and I am looking forward to it. Take a look at the two trades below and let me know if you have any questions. Have a great night.
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Comments from last Thursday:
It is great when the markets cooperate and do what they are supposed to do. The Soybean price has been inflated for a while, and it now starting to come back down to reality. I have liked the 1100 level in July’26 Soybeans for a while, and this week it has paid off. I do not see the Beans trading higher from here for a while, and they could continue to grind lower from here. The Corn Market made a new contract low today, and it could be a buying opportunity. Today I bought the September’26 Corn and sold the December’26. That spread settled 19 cents under today and September’26 could eventually trade over the December’26. The Wheat Market was inflated as well, and it was a good ride lower, right to my level for July’26 Wheat at 580. I don’t expect much upside in the wheat market moving forward for a while. I did put on new trades in the Soybean Oil this morning, and they are working well. If you received my emails yesterday, I did the first one listed. If you would like to see any of my trade ideas, just let me know. It was one heck of a day, and I appreciate your business. I am looking forward to tomorrow, but now it is time for a beer or two. Have a great night.
Comments from Tuesday:
The Grains have all been breaking for a while now, and that is because they should. July’26 Beans have zero business being over or anywhere near 1200. I still feel we can see them trade closer to the 1100 level. The Corn Market kinda did what I thought it would do. I sold the July’26 440 Straddle for 38 cents and today it settled at 17 ¾, and I am expecting it to expire worthless. The Wheat Market finally fell out of bed, and that has been a good trade as I continued to sell it all the way up in the Option Market. I feel we can see the July’26 Wheat trade toward the 580 level. Planting has gone well, and the weather in general has been good. The Brazilian Soybean crop will be a monster, and harvest is nearing completion. They won’t waste any time getting the Corn in the ground as well. It looks like the Wheat will survive as needed rains came for much of the Wheat in drought conditions. I feel this all points to lower grain prices in the near term. We will have to wait and see if the weather continues to cooperate and if it does, we could see much lower Soybean prices. I still like buying November’26 Soybeans and selling July’26 Soybeans. I have new trades in Grain Markets ready to go in the Option Markets. I would like to talk to you about it, give me a call when you have a chance. Have a great night.
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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
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