WALSH PURE SPREADER
Pure Hedge Division
RICH MORAN 5/5/2026
AUG-NOV SOYBEAN SPREAD (ZSQ26-ZSX26)
The AUG-NOV SOYBEAN SPREAD (ZSQ26-ZSX26) has been trading between +13½ and +20 since the middle of April. Full Carry for this spread is 42.77. At Full Carry this spread would be negative at -42¾. Today ZSQ26-ZSX26 settled positive at +15½. This is 58¼ above Full Carry. That being said, markets don’t necessarily trade to Full Carry, but in this case, I think it may benefit our risk/reward.
The soybean market has recently had a nice run up and may be starting to feel a little heavy. I think the AUG-NOV Soybean Spread may continue its recent trend down towards 0 (zero) and could even go negative in the direction of Full Carry. If the soybean market does start to soften, this might especially help the spread go lower. Ever since ZSQ26-ZSX26 settled down by more than 20 cents on March 16th, it has continued its trend down, while remaining just below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages along the way. Today it traded below and settled below both moving averages.
I am suggesting that if the market opens this evening below both moving averages (+18), we try to sell it, but not lower than +16.
Risk 5 cents or $250 Per Spread to make 10 cents or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.