For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, April 21, 2026, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
June Lean Hogs opened higher and then traded to the session low at 101.10. It quickly rebounded and traded to the session high at 101.875. It drifted the rest of the session and settled near the high at 101.725. The price action formed an inside candlestick as price traded in the upper end of Friday’s trading range. Price approached resistance at 101.975 and settled just below it. Settlement was higher than the previous day’s close for the first time in 9 sessions, since it made its high on April 6th at 107.85 and also its highest close for the June contract since it became the lead contract at 107.70. This could be a positive sign the attitude in Hogs is changing as we are seeing the cash market once again change direction and is starting to grind higher. The one-day cutout finally broke 100.00 on Monday which may indicate the grilling season seasonality is kicking in and we could see higher cutouts going forward as the retail industry prepares for the grilling holidays and the summer buying season. This could help cash Hogs break out of its slumber and take prices higher if it can continue. Slaughter was revised lower but is still well above last year’s slaughter with production also above last year’s production. China continues to have problems as they are still pressuring producers to reduce numbers as pork demand remains weak. This could continue to limit imports but China’s purchases of US pork have been sparse so it shouldn’t have a negative effect on the US but it could put a crimp into Brazil’s exports and they could strive to improve sales to Mexico which is our largest buyer of pork. We’ll see!… If price can take out resistance at 101.975, it could test resistance at the declining 8-DMA now at 102.425. The declining 13-DMA is next at 103.725 and then the declining 21-DMA now at 104.125. The key level at 104.35 is next. This resistance is going to take some strong efforts to turn around so Hogs could consolidate until it can turn around these moving averages. In my opinion cash will have to incentivize bulls to push prices higher. A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 100.075.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 97.81 as of 04/17/2026.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 90.51 as of 04/16/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 492,000, which is even with last week and above last year’s 352,020.
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