TUESDAY PM RADAR — FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
The midday radar shows thunderstorms over north western Wisconsin and scattered showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Wisconsin … and 50% of Indiana, Ohio, eastern Kentucky, West Virginia and western North Carolina. There are additional widely scattered showers and storms over 30% of southeastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas and 50% of southern Mississippi and Alabama.
1-5 DAY = The midday GFS and European model in the 1-5D are for the most part pretty unchanged. Both models shows significant rain over various portions of the Midwest but there are significant differences with respect to the coverage. In general both models show areas of 1-3″/ 25-75mm rains, but the European has large gaps and in these rains over Iowa, eastern Missouri, southern Indiana and Kentucky. But the GFS shows a mostly solid complete wall of 1-3″ /25-75mm with 80% coverage across the entire Midwest. Probably the best solution here is to take a compromise between these two solutions … which incidentally is pretty close to what the Canadian model is depicting today.
6-10 DAY = The midday European model has followed the GFS model in that it shows areas of moderate rain over some portions of the Midwest but this model still has large areas of little or no rain especially over the WCB and the central upper Plains. The GFS shows 0.50-1.5″/12-38mm with 40% coverage over Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio whereas the European is completely dry for many of these areas. The European has 1-3″25-75mm rains over much of Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia as well as southeastern Missouri.
The GFS and European ensembles are pretty similar to their regular or operational models. The GFS has more uniform rain over the Midwest with somewhat heavier amounts… whereas the European has gaps in the rainfall coverage over much of the Midwest.
11-15 DAY = The operational 11 to 15 day GFS model shows a huge rain event over the heart of the Midwest and widespread significant rains over the Appalachian Mts from Alabama to Pennsylvania. The GFS ensemble does not show that.
The difference between the “regular” GFS and the GFS ENSEMBLE is because of how the atmosphere handles the upper air pattern.
The image on the LEFT shows the operational or regular GFS model upper air pattern at 300 hours and we can see the model clearly depicting a massive trough moving through the Midwest. With strong southerly flow ahead of the cold front the model produces widespread heavy rains over the heart of the Midwest.
The image on the right is the GFS ensemble and as you can see it does NOT have a massive trough over the Midwest. In fact it shows a ridge trying to build back into the Plains and the WCB late in the 11 to 15 day. This means essentially that the big rain showing up on the operational GFS model solution is bogus and should be ignored.
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