TUESDAY AM RADAR – The Tuesday morning radar shows strong thunderstorms and heavy rains over the eastern portions of North Dakota into northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Additional showers and storms can be found over central and southeastern Wisconsin. There are some small thunderstorms across central Ohio which extend into West Virginia.
MONDAY MAX TEMPS AGAIN – temperatures were not as hot as forecasted last week over Nebraska, South Dakota and Iowa — 80s were common over eastern MT, eastern WY, MD, SD, northern NEB, MN, northwest IA … near 90f/32c over southeast TX, LA, ARK, southern MO, MS, GA, southern AL … low 90s over central TX, central OK, southern NEB, eastern IA, northern MS, TN, KY, OH … mid 90s IND, ILL, north MO, east KS … 95-105 over southwest TX into TX Panhandle, OK Panhandle & western KS.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS — ending 0700 13 JUNE – Given the several rounds of storms which have moved through central and eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin it is no surprise that these areas have seen heavy rains in the past 24 hours. Central and eastern Minnesota have seen rainfall amounts of 0.25-1.5″ 6-38mm while the northern half of Wisconsin has seen anywhere from 1.5-6.0″ of rain. Keep in mind that there are more strong thunderstorms moving through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota this morning. All other areas of the Plains and the Midwest as well as the upper Delta region were dry.
1-5 D = Over the next 5 days there is not a lot of change in the forecast. Once more the operational or regular GFS model has more rain over all of the Midwest than the European does. Not only does the GFS have heavier rainfall amounts but the coverage is also significantly higher. As you can see the GFS model shows 75% coverage of 1-3″/ 25-75mm rains covering all of the ECB and WCB regions. The European model also shows areas of moderate to significant rain but the rainfall amounts are 1-2″/ 25-50mm and there are large gaps in some areas of Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri. So the European coverage is around 60% at best. Both models show pretty good rains over southern half of Minnesota into North Dakota and the northern portions of South Dakota.
6-10 DAY = If you recall yesterday afternoon the European model turned significantly wetter over the heart of the Midwest while the GFS model had pushed all the significant rains into the Deep South and the East coast and showed areas of dryness over much of the Midwest and the Upper Plains. This morning the European model has flip flopped and it now agrees with the GFS and both models show large areas of no significant rain over the Midwest and the Upper Plains in the 6-10D. As you can see both models have the best rains centered over the southern half of Missouri …northern Arkansas into Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Over the heart of the Midwest both models show at best 30 to 40% coverage of 0.5-1.5″ /12-38 mm so it’s not completely dry. But is not nearly as wet as what the European model was depicting yesterday. Obviously this sort of flip flopping does not support a lot of forecasts of confidence in the 6-10day.
What is happening here is that the models are now shifting the mean trough position from the Midwest back to the East Coast. As a result …the rainfall amounts are significantly less over the WCB and are concentrated mostly over the Tennessee Valley and the ECB as well as the southeastern states. We can see this on the GFS and the European ensemble. Notice how both models show a lot less rain over the WCB areas and almost nothing in the Plains and the best rains are clearly falling over locations such as Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana and Michigan as well as the Southeastern states.
11-15 DAY = The mean trough position over the East Coast finally breaks down and we move into a more typical late JUNE weather pattern. A ridge is trying to reform over the lower Plains and the Delta region in the jet stream shifting back to the north. This allows for a somewhat drier pattern over the Midwest. Not completely dry as you can see from these maps …but definitely not a wet pattern and temperatures appear to be warming.
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