Soybeans–
Soybeans sold off to end the week. There was a flash sale this morning for 462k mt of soybeans to China. Soybean meal traded lower for the 6th day in a row, while soybean oil traded lower on the day. The next WASDEW report is scheduled for next Tuesday. Ending stocks for the December WASDE are estimated at 306 mb, compared to 290 for November. Argentina’s planting is estimated at 44% complete at 61% good/excellent. Soybean conditions in Argentina are estimated 8 points behind last year. Brazil planting is ahead of Argentina. Both South American countries are dealing with dryness and while not a major issue now, it could get worse during the reproductive stage in January and February.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1105 (-14), high of 1121, low of 1104. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1116 (-12), high of 1130, low of 1115. Cash price is at 1092 (+4)
January Bean Meal (ZMF26) settled at 307.4 (-3.8) high of 311.6, low of 307.1
January Bean Oil (ZLF26)) settled at 51.69 (-0.10) high of 52.50, low of 51.67
Meal to Oil ratio (54.575% Meal – 45.425% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1185) 5-day, (1129) 20-day, (1087) 50-day, (1066) 100-day, (1053) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1128) 5-day, (1138) 20-day, (1098) 50-day, (1079) 100-day, (1063) 200-day
ZMF26 Moving Averages – (311.2) 5-day, (319.6) 20-day, (303.7) 50-day, (296.6) 100-day, (301.8) 200-day
ZLF26 Moving Averages – (52.04) 5-day, (51.28) 20-day, (50.91) 50-day, (52.12) 100-day, (50.27) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 446 (-2) (ZCH26) high of 448, low of 444. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 452 (-2). Cash price is 436 (+3)
Corn was lower today after a 1 cent drop in the overnight session. The December WASDE report has analysts expecting a drop in ending stocks from 2.154 bb to 2.146 bb. The USDA may decide to drop the yield even further from 186 bpa in November. The USDA only took off 0.6 mb from the September report, however it’s possible the USDA will wait until the January report to make a bigger adjustment. Argentina’s corn planting is estimated at 44% complete, with conditions sitting at nearly 80% good/excellent. Corn is still trying to make a move above the psychological resistance at 450. The 14-day moving average is the current support.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (446) 5-day, (444) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (447) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (453) 5-day, (452) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (445) 100-day, (456) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 535 (-4), with a high of 541, low of 534. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 543 (-4). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 541 (+2). March KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 531 (-2).
Wheat was down 1 cent in the overnight session and continued lower today. Wheat fundamentals remain bearish and the technical momentum seen previously is gone. The UN estimated global grain stocks higher than last month at 925.5 mmt from 916.3 mmt. Analysts are expecting a reduction in ending stocks on the December report from 901 mb to 894 mb, which would finally bring some bullish news to the market. Winter wheat is estimated at 35%, minus 4 points from the previous estimate. Last year at this time, drought was 29%. If the December WASDE comes out bullish, maybe that can spark some short covering.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (544) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (544) 100-day, (574) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (545) 5-day, (553) 20-day, (547) 50-day, (555) 100-day, (585) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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