Soybeans–
The first WASDE since September came out this morning. Ending stocks were lowered 10 mb, from the September report to 290 mb. In 2024/25 ending stocks were 316 mb. Exports came in at 1,635 mb, compared to 1,685 mb in September. It’s somewhat surprising to see exports lowered with China back in the market, this is the reason the market reacted so negatively to the report. The USDA did say that not all export data had been accounted for yet, however, so it is still possible to see exports increased on the December and January reports. Yield was also lowered from 53.5 bpa to 53.0 bpa, which falls in line with analyst expectations. Soybean production was 4.253 bb, compared to the pe-report estimate at 4.271 bb. There are bullish and bearish takeaways from this report. Soybeans were due for some profit-taking so the market reaction was not a surprise. There is still a gap in the soybean chart to 1060-1070. Rumors are that China purchased soybeans from Canada. China still has a long way to go on their agreement to buy 12 mmt of US soybeans by the end of the year. Next week, the market will also likely focus on the dryness in Brazil’s soybean areas.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1124 (-22), high of 1152, low of 1122. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1136 (-20), high of 1161, low of 1134. Cash price is at 1116 (+13)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 322.5 (-5.9) high of 330.3, low of 321.6
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.15 (-0.10) high of 50.76, low of 50.01
Meal to Oil ratio (56.25% Meal – 43.75% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1132) 5-day, (1102) 20-day, (1064) 50-day, (1053) 100-day, (1048) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1142) 5-day, (1112) 20-day, (1078) 50-day, (1067) 100-day, (1058) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (321.8) 5-day, (310.0) 20-day, (291.8) 50-day, (289.2) 100-day, (299.5) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.54) 5-day, (50.17) 20-day, (50.54) 50-day, (52.20) 100-day, (49.72) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 430 (-11), high of 442, low of 429. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 444 (-11). Cash price is 433 (+6)
Corn also had a negative reaction to the report, but it wasn’t as harsh as for soybeans. Corn yield was reduced very slightly from 186.7 to 186 bpa. Production was lowered from 16,814 bb in September to 16,752 bb. Exports were increased by 100 mb to 3,075 mb. Ending stocks were increased from 2,110 bb in September to 2,154. Corn ending stocks above 2bb is still a very large crop. Corn had a sell-off but the report is not as bearish as many may think. The reason I say this is the discount in corn will help exports stay strong, and yield should be cut more significantly going forward. More export data should be coming out over the next few days and weeks that can help the corn market.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (433) 5-day, (430) 20-day, (424) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (435) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (448) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (450) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 527 (-8), with a high of 544, low of 524. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 541 (-10). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 533 (-0.25). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 515 (-10).
Wheat was lower with the other grains following the report’s release this morning. Wheat ending stocks were increased from 844 mb in September to 901 mb. The average estimate prior to the report was 867 mb. World ending stocks were also raised higher than analyst estimates. The USDA report doesn’t add anything to wheat fundamentals that wasn’t already known. The idea of China coming and buying US wheat sparked a short covering rally, but wheat is likely headed back down unless prices fall enough for US wheat to be more competitive than France and Black Sea origins. Russia, the EU, Canada, Australia, and Argentina are also seeing increased wheat production. Argentina’s wheat crop is on pace to be a record crop.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (534) 5-day, (528) 20-day, (520) 50-day, (532) 100-day, (564) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (549) 5-day, (543) 20-day, (536) 50-day, (550) 100-day, (582) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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