Soybeans–
Soybeans are showing impressive strength leading into tomorrow’s report. Soybeans were up 12, after trading 3 1/2 cents higher in the overnight session. It’s interesting to see prices rally this hard without much profit taking. Soybeans are now trading at a 17-month high, having rallied $1.20 since early October. Pre-report estimates for Friday’s WASDE show yield an average yield of 53.1 bpa, compared to 53.5 bpa the USDA gave in September. Ending stocks are estimated at an average of 306 mb, compared to 300 mb in September. The low estimate is 187 mb the high estimate is 450 mb. The average production estimate is 4,271 mb. In September, the USDA estimated domestic soybean production at 4,301 mb.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1147 (+13), high of 1150, low of 1129. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1156 (+12), high of 1160, low of 1140. Cash price is at 1103 (+11)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 328.4 (+7.4) high of 330.2, low of 320.2
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.25 (-0.37) high of 51.08, low of 50.18
Meal to Oil ratio (56.075% Meal – 43.925% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1131) 5-day, (1097) 20-day, (1063) 50-day, (1052) 100-day, (1048) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1140) 5-day, (1108) 20-day, (1076) 50-day, (1066) 100-day, (1057) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (320.7) 5-day, (308.0) 20-day, (291.0) 50-day, (288.9) 100-day, (299.5) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.45) 5-day, (50.22) 20-day, (50.56) 50-day, (52.22) 100-day, (49.69) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 441 (+6), high of 442, low of 434. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 455 (+6). Cash price is 426 (-1)
Corn was up solidly today, after trading close to unchanged in the overnight session. If tomorrow’s report is unfriendly, it will make US corn more competitive for export at time when exports are already doing well. In the last 10 years, corn was only higher the day after the November report 3 times. The average estimate for corn yield is 184.0 bpa, compared to the USDA’s September figure at 186.7 bpa. The lowest yield estimate is 181.7, while the highest estimate for the yield is 186.3 bpa. Even the highest yield estimate is below the USDA’s September estimate. Analysts are expecting this report to come out friendly, with a drop in yield. The average production estimate is 16,566, compared to 16,814 bb in September. The average ending stock estimate is 2,168 bb versus 2,110 bb in September.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (433) 5-day, (429) 20-day, (424) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (435) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (447) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (439) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (450) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 535 (-0.25), with a high of 539, low of 530. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 552 (-0.25). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 534 (+24). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 525 (+0.25).
Wheat was lower today, after trading 2 cents lower in the overnight session. Open interest in wheat continues to fall, now 100k contracts lower then in mid-October. Fundamentals are still bearish, despite the technical rally. Crops are large around the world. Argentina’s wheat crop is estimated at 24.5 mmt, which is a new record for Argentina if it materializes. The EU production estimate was also increased slightly by Expana. Tomorrow’s report could send wheat right back down. . New crop ending stocks on Friday’s report are estimated at 869 mb on average. The low end of estimates is 828 mb, and the high end of estimates is 905 mb. The USDA estimated ending stocks at 844 mb in September.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (534) 5-day, (527) 20-day, (519) 50-day, (533) 100-day, (564) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (549) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (536) 50-day, (550) 100-day, (582) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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