Soybeans–
Soybeans were lower in the overnight session and were lower again today. I still think soybeans can move higher from here. The question is whether China comes through on the 12 mmt of soybeans they agreed to purchase for the current marketing year. More information will be available when the government reopens, but it seems likely that funds have been buying heavily. Pre-report estimate for Friday’s WASDE show yield an average yield of 53.1 bpa, compared to 53.5 bpa the USDA gave in September. Funds may decide to press on the gas with the bullish trend. If the trend doesn’t hold there is a gap in the chart to 1045. Soybean farmers have been waiting on China for a long time, now that China is back 1200 may be possible.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1127 (-2), high of 1130, low of 1119. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1138 (-1), high of 1138, low of 1129. Cash price is at 1099 (+14)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 316.9 (-3.1) high of 320.4, low of 315.9
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.10 (+0.52) high of 51.27, low of 50.52
Meal to Oil ratio (56.075% Meal – 43.925% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1123) 5-day, (1086) 20-day, (1059) 50-day, (1050) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1132) 5-day, (1097) 20-day, (1073) 50-day, (1064) 100-day, (1056) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (318.3) 5-day, (303.1) 20-day, (289.4) 50-day, (288.3) 100-day, (299.6) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.08) 5-day, (50.26) 20-day, (50.62) 50-day, (52.28) 100-day, (49.64) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 432 (+2), high of 432, low of 428. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 447 (+2). Cash price is 426 (+2)
Corn was slightly higher on the day, after going down 1/2 cent in the overnight session. Corn exports have been very strong. Shipments of US corn last week were made to Mexico, Colombia, Taiwan, and South Korea. Thailand raised its quota from 54,700 mt to 1 mmt. With exports doing well, corn has a reason to go higher. Harvest is estimated at 92% complete. Last year at this time harvest was 95% complete. The average estimate for Friday’s WASDE is 184 bpa, compared to 186.7 bpa on the September report.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (430) 5-day, (427) 20-day, (423) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (436) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (445) 5-day, (441) 20-day, (439) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (450) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 536 (unchanged), with a high of 539, low of 531. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 551 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 509 (-16). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 523 (-3).
Wheat had smaller trading ranges the past 2 sessions. Wheat rallied hard off the news of China buying 2 cargoes. Domestic wheat is less competitive than France and Black Sea wheat and also faces competition from Kazakhstan. I don’t trust the wheat market here, but I wouldn’t necessarily want to short it here because technical support levels have been holding up well. US winter wheat sowing is 96% complete versus 91% last year. SovEcon estimated the Russian the 2026 wheat crop lower at 83.8 mmt, compared to this year at 87.8 mmt.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (523) 20-day, (519) 50-day, (534) 100-day, (565) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (552) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (551) 100-day, (583) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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