Soybeans–
Soybeans traded 4 1/2 cents lower today, after trading 3 3/4 cents lower in the overnight. Managed money in now heavily short the grains, after switching their net long position in soybeans to a net shirt position. It’s the first time in 4 months managed money is net short soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil at the same time. The Grain Stocks report comes out tomorrow morning from the USDA. Analysts are expecting soybean stocks at an average of 323 mb, with a range of 295 mb on the low end and 360 mb on the high end. Last year, ahead of the September Quarterly Stocks report soybean stocks were estimated at 330 mb, while the actual figure came in at 342 mb. Brazil has had favorable weather lately, as a result planting is moving along ahead of schedule at 4.6% complete, versus 0.54% this time last year. The Midwest is expected to see some rain in the 6-10 day forecast after facing some drier weather.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1010 (-4), high of 1013, low of 1006. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1029 (-3), high of 1032, low of 1025. Cash price is at 972 (+1)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 268.1 (-0.7) high of 271.3, low of 267.1
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 49.11 (-0.49) high of 49.60, low of 48.84
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.72% Meal – 48.28% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1011) 5-day, (1028) 20-day, (1025) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1030) 5-day, (1047) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (270.5) 5-day, (279.8) 20-day, (280.8) 50-day, (287.2) 100-day, (299.4) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (49.42) 5-day, (50.63) 20-day, (52.58) 50-day, (51.89) 100-day, (48.31) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 421 (-0.50), high of 422, low of 418. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 438 (-0.25). Cash price is 418 (+1)
Corn closed nearly unchanged to start the week, after trading 2 1/2 cents lower in the overnight session. Tomorrow’s grain stocks report has an average estimate of 1.337 bb. The low end of estimates for corn stocks is 1.260 bb and the highest estimate is 1.450 bb. Last year’s September Grain Stocks report had corn stocks at 1.763 bb, compared to the estimate at 1.325 bb. Managed money traders added close to 15k contracts to their short position in corn. Funds also have significant short position in the grains overall. Trade talks with India are ongoing, hopefully details regarding a successful deal will be announced in the near-term.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (424) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (425) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (440) 5-day, (440) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (441) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 519 (-1), with a high of 522, low of 516. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 537 (-0.50). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 464 (-7). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 508 (+2).
Wheat closed a cent lower today, after trading down 2 1/2 cents in the overnight session. Tomorrow’s grain stocks report has an average estimate of 2.043 bb. The low end of estimates for wheat stocks is 1.954 bb and the highest estimate is 2.135 bb. Last year’s September Grain Stocks report had wheat stocks at 1.992 bb. Russia’s exports for the first 3 months of its marketing year hit 11 mt, which is the lowest level on record for that time period over the last 4 years. Meanwhile, Ukraine is done with harvest. Ukraine’s production was 22.5 mt, which 1% lower y/oy. The funds continue to sell the wheat market. Managed money traders added 12k contracts to their net short in wheat, with some small buying in KC wheat. Australia, Russia, and the EU have strong crops, however there’s a better chance of a larger move with a trend reversal to the upside.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (521) 5-day, (522) 20-day, (531) 50-day, (551) 100-day, (577) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (539) 5-day, (539) 20-day, (549) 50-day, (570) 100-day, (595) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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